摘要

《自然》杂志最新研究指出，气候变化将严重冲击全球农业，主要作物产量预计大幅下降。研究覆盖12,000地区，显示即便采取适应措施，全球产量仍可能减少11.2%。美国中西部等粮仓受影响最深，北部或受益。气温每升1°C，人均日食物供应减120卡路里。低收入地区因适应能力弱，生产损失或达13-28%，富裕地区则面临高成本挑战。研究强调，贸易自由化是保障粮食安全的关键。

A groundbreaking Nature study reveals severe climate impacts on global agriculture. Analyzing real-world farmer adaptations across 12,000 regions, researchers project staple crop yields (cassava, maize, rice, sorghum, soybeans, wheat) will decline significantly by 2100 due to rising temperatures and extreme weather. While adaptation measures marginally reduce losses, they cannot prevent an estimated 11.2% global yield reduction even with moderate emissions cuts. Key breadbaskets like the US Midwest face the worst impacts, though northern regions may benefit. Critically, every 1°C temperature rise reduces daily food availability by 120 calories per person. Low-income regions could suffer 13-28% production losses due to limited adaptive capacity, while wealthy areas face costly systemic challenges. Researchers emphasize trade liberalization as vital for food security.